Isaac Update--Friday Morning

Tropical Storm Isaac is on everyone's mind so I thought I'd talk a little meteorology today on my blog.

The latest update from the reconnaissance flight shows Isaac is a bit disorganized. The storm isn't expected to strengthen much over the next 24 hours as it will be interacting with the land mass of Hispaniola and Cuba and it's mountainous terrain. Isaac will have an opportunity to strengthen as it moves off the coast of Cuba and into the Florida Straits and eventually into the Gulf. That being said, it is difficult to determine a storm's intensity 3 to 5 days out. Therefore, the storm could be stronger or weaker than what the models are projecting once it reaches the US.

It should continue to jog, or wobble, to the west-northwest over the next few days. It will interact with a trough moving through the Mississippi River Valley which should turn it more north and northeastward. With that track, it could make landfall to the east of Mobile Bay, Alabama. However, it is important to note that areas all along the Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Biloxi and east to Panama City should be on high alert. High seas, sustained high winds, bands of heavy rain and the threat of tornadoes can be expected.

Here is the latest NHC track: